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Voter demographics

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Voter demographic data for 2020 were collected by Edison Research for the National Election Pool, a consortium of ABC News, CBS News, MSNBC, CNN, Fox News, and the Associated Press. The voter survey is based on exit polls completed by 15,590 voters in person as well as by phone.[1]

2020 presidential election voter demographics (exit polling)[2]
Demographic subgroup Biden Trump % of
total vote
Total vote 51 47 100
Ideology
Liberals 89 10 24
Moderates 64 34 38
Conservatives 14 85 38
Party
Democrats 94 6 37
Republicans 6 94 36
Independents 54 41 26
Gender
Men 45 53 48
Women 57 42 52
Marital status
Married 45 53 56
Unmarried 58 40 44
Gender by marital status
Married men 43 55 30
Married women 48 51 26
Unmarried men 52 45 20
Unmarried women 62 36 23
Race/ethnicity
White 41 58 67
Black 87 12 13
Latino 65 33 13
Asian 63 36 4
Other 55 41 4
Gender by race/ethnicity
White men 38 61 35
White women 44 55 32
Black men 79 19 4
Black women 90 9 8
Latino men 59 36 5
Latina women 69 30 8
Other 58 38 8
Religion
Protestant/Other Christian 39 60 43
Catholic 52 47 25
Jewish 76 22 2
Other religion 68 29 8
None 65 31 22
White evangelical or born-again Christian
Yes 24 76 28
No 62 36 72
Age
18–24 years old 65 31 9
25–29 years old 54 43 7
30–39 years old 51 46 16
40–49 years old 54 44 16
50–64 years old 47 52 30
65 and older 47 52 22
Age by race
White 18–29 years old 44 53 8
White 30–44 years old 41 57 14
White 45–59 years old 38 61 19
White 60 and older 42 57 26
Black 18–29 years old 88 10 3
Black 30–44 years old 78 19 4
Black 45–59 years old 89 10 3
Black 60 and older 92 7 3
Latino 18–29 years old 69 28 4
Latino 30–44 years old 62 35 4
Latino 45–59 years old 68 30 3
Latino 60 and older 58 40 2
Others 59 38 8
Sexual orientation
LGBT 75 23 7
Non-LGBT 51 48 93
First time voter
Yes 64 32 14
No 49 49 86
Education
High school or less 46 54 19
Some college education 51 47 23
Associate degree 47 50 16
Bachelor's degree 51 47 27
Postgraduate degree 62 37 15
Education by race
White college graduates 51 48 32
White no college degree 32 67 35
Non-white college graduates 70 27 10
Non-white no college degree 72 26 24
Education by race/gender
White women with college degrees 54 45 14
White women without college degrees 36 63 17
White men with college degrees 48 51 17
White men without college degrees 28 70 18
Non-White 71 26 33
Income
Under $30,000 54 46 15
$30,000–49,999 56 44 20
$50,000–99,999 56 42 39
$100,000–199,999 41 57 20
Over $200,000 48 48 7
Union households
Yes 56 41 20
No 50 49 80
Military service
Veterans 44 54 15
Non-veterans 53 45 85
Issue regarded as most important
Racial inequality 92 7 20
COVID-19 pandemic 81 16 17
Economy 16 82 35
Crime and safety 27 71 11
Health care 62 37 11
Region
East 58 40 20
Midwest 47 51 23
South 46 53 35
West 57 41 22
Area type
Urban 60 38 29
Suburban 50 48 51
Rural 42 57 19
Family's financial situation today
Better than four years ago 26 72 41
Worse than four years ago 77 20 20
About the same 65 34 39
Abortion should be
Legal in all/most cases 74 24 55
Illegal in all/most cases 23 76 45
Climate change is a serious problem
Yes 69 29 67
No 15 84 30

The Brookings Institution released a report entitled "Exit polls show both familiar and new voting blocs sealed Biden's win" on November 12, 2020. In it, author William H. Frey attributes Obama's 2008 win to young people, people of color, and the college-educated. Frey contends Trump won in 2016 thanks to older White without college degrees.[3] Frey says the same coalitions largely held in 2008 and 2016, although in key battleground states Biden increased his vote among some of the 2016 Trump groups, particularly among White and older Americans.[3] Trump won the white vote in 2016 by 20% but in 2020 by only 16%. The Democratic Party won black voters by 75%, the lowest margin since 1980. Democrats won the Latino vote by 32%, which is the smallest margin since 2004, and they won the Asian American vote by 27%, the lowest figure since 2008.[3] Biden reduced the Republican margin of white men without college educations from 48% to 42%, and the Democrats made a slight improvement of 2% among white, college-educated women. People age 18 to 29 registered a rise in Democratic support between 2016 and 2020, with the Democratic margin of victory among that demographic increasing from 19% to 24%.[3]

Post-election analysis using verified voter data found the Associated Press's Votecast was more accurate than the exit polls.[4][5]

Voting patterns by ethnicity

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Hispanic and Latino voters

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Biden won 65% of the Latino vote according to Edison Research, and 63% according to the Associated Press. Voto Latino reported that the Latino vote was crucial to the Biden victory in Arizona. 40% of Latino voters who voted in 2020 did not vote in 2016, and 73% of those Latino voters voted for Biden (438,000 voters).[6] Florida and Texas, which have large Latino populations, were carried by Trump. In Florida, Trump won a majority of Cuban American voters in Miami-Dade County, Florida.[7] The Latino vote was still crucial to enable Biden to carry states such as Nevada.[8] Latino voters were targeted by a major Spanish-language disinformation campaign in the final weeks of the election, with various falsehoods and conspiracy theories being pushed out by WhatsApp and viral social media posts.[9][10][11]

Demographic patterns emerged having to do with country of origin and candidate preference. Pre- and post-election surveys showed Biden winning Latinos of Mexican, Puerto Rican, Dominican,[12] and Spanish heritage,[13] while Trump carried Latinos of Cuban heritage. Data from Florida showed Biden holding a narrow edge among South Americans.[14]

Black voters

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Biden won 87% of the Black vote, while Trump won 12%.[15] Biden's advantage among Black voters was crucial in the large cities of Pennsylvania and Michigan; the increase in the Democratic vote in Milwaukee County of about 28,000 votes was more than the 20,000-vote lead Biden had in the state of Wisconsin. Almost half Biden's gains in Georgia came from the four largest counties – Fulton, DeKalb, Gwinnett, and Cobb – all in the Atlanta metro area with large Black populations.[16] Trump improved his overall share of the Black vote from 2016 by 4% and doubled the Black vote that Mitt Romney received in 2012.[17][18][15]

Asian American and Pacific Island voters

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Polls showed that 68% of Asian American and Pacific Island (AAPI) voters supported Biden/Harris, while 28% supported Trump/Pence. Karthick Ramakrishnan, a political science professor at the University of California Riverside and founder of AAPI Data, said Asian Americans supported Biden over Trump by about a 2:1 margin. Korean Americans, Japanese Americans, Indian Americans, and Chinese Americans favored Biden by higher margins overall compared to Vietnamese Americans and Filipino Americans.[19] Many voters were turned off by Trump's language some of which was widely considered racist such as ("China virus" and "kung flu") but, according to Vox reporter Terry Nguyen, many Vietnamese voters (and especially elderly, South Vietnamese migrants who populated coastal centers in the 1970s) appreciated his strong anti-China stance.[20]

Indian American voters

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Data from FiveThirtyEight indicated 65% of Indian American voters backed Joe Biden, and 28% supported Donald Trump.[19] Some Indian Americans self-identified with Kamala Harris, but others approved of Donald Trump's support of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.[21] In a speech given to 50,000 Indian-Americans during his 2019 visit to the US, Modi praised Trump with remarks that were interpreted as an indirect endorsement of his candidacy.[22] Indian right-wing organizations like the Hindu Sena had performed special havans and pujas for Trump's electoral victory.[23]

American Indian and Alaska Native voters

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Pre-election voter surveys by Indian Country Today found 68% of American Indian and Alaska Native voters supporting Democratic nominee Joe Biden.[24] In particular, the Navajo Reservation, which spans a large quadrant of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, delivered up to 97% of their votes per precinct to Biden,[25] while overall support for Biden was between 60 and 90% on the Reservation.[26] Biden also posted large turnout among Havasupai, Hopi, and Tohono O'odham peoples,[27] delivering a large win in New Mexico and flipping Arizona.

In Montana, while the state went for Trump overall, Biden won counties overlapping reservations of the Blackfeet, Fort Belknap, Crow and Northern Cheyenne.[28] The same pattern held in South Dakota, with most of the counties overlapping the lands of the Standing Rock Sioux, Cheyenne River Sioux, Oglala Sioux, Rosebud Sioux and Crow Creek tribes going for Biden. For example, in Oglala Lakota County, which overlaps with the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, Biden won 88% of the vote.[28]

Trump's strongest performance among Native tribes was with the Lumbee Tribe of North Carolina, where he won a strong majority in Robeson County and flipped Scotland County from Democratic to Republican.[29] Trump had campaigned in Lumberton, in Robeson County, and had promised the Lumbees federal recognition.[29]

Polling accuracy

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Although polls generally predicted the Biden victory, the national polls overestimated him by three to four points, and some state polling was even further from the actual result and greater than 2016's error (one or two points).[30] The numbers represented the highest level of error since the 1980 presidential election.[31] This polling overestimation also applied in several Senate races, where the Democrats underperformed by about five points relative to the polls,[32] as well as the House elections, where Republicans gained seats instead of losing as polls predicted. Most pollsters underestimated support for Trump in several key battleground states, including Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Texas, and Wisconsin. The discrepancy between poll predictions and the actual result persisted from the 2016 election despite pollsters' attempts to fix problems with polling in 2016, in which they underestimated the Republican vote in several states. The imprecise polls led to changes in campaigning and fundraising decisions for both Democrats and Republicans.[30]

According to The New York Times, polling misses have been attributed to, among other issues, reduced average response to polling; the relative difficulty to poll certain types of voters; and pandemic-related problems, such as a theory which suggests Democrats were less willing to vote in person on Election Day than Republicans for fear of contracting COVID-19.[30] According to CNN, research presented to the American Association for Public Opinion Research indicated one of the primary problems was an inability by pollsters to include a certain segment of Trump supporters, either due to inaccessibility or lack of participation.[31] New Statesman data journalist Ben Walker pointed to Hispanics as a historically difficult group to poll accurately, leading to pollsters underestimating the level of Trump support within the demographic group.[33] Election analyst Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight argued that the polling error in 2020 was normal by historical standards.[34]

Siena College Research Institute reported that a significant source of polling error was the discounting of partial responses by "mistrustful Trump supporters" who "yelled" at their callers; when someone would "say 'I’m voting for Trump—fuck you,' and then hang up before completing the rest of the survey," it would not be counted as a response. Such "partials" made up "nearly half of Siena’s error rate."<ref>Edelman, Gilad (August 22, 2024). "The Asterisk on Kamala Harris's Poll Numbers". The Atlantic. Retrieved September 29, 2024.</ref

  1. ^ Andre, Michael; et al. (2020-11-03). "National Exit Polls: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2020-12-05.
  2. ^ "National Results 2020 President exit polls". CNN. Retrieved 2020-12-04.
  3. ^ a b c d Frey, William H. (November 5, 2020). "Exit polls show both familiar and new voting blocs sealed Biden's win". The Brookings Institution. Retrieved November 22, 2020.
  4. ^ "What Happened in 2020 National Analysis". Catalist. Retrieved 2021-05-17.
  5. ^ Cohn, Nate (May 14, 2021). "Tweet by Nate Cohn".
  6. ^ Gorden, Max (November 9, 2020). "Latino key to turning Arizona blue in 2020 presidential election, group says". AZFamily. Retrieved November 22, 2020.
  7. ^ Aguilera, Jasmine (November 10, 2020). "The Complexities of the 2020 "Latino Vote" Were Overlooked, Again". Time. Retrieved November 22, 2020.
  8. ^ Strott, Savannah; Mueller, Tabitha (November 16, 2020). "Polls show how Latino voters helped drive Biden win in Nevada, though Trump gained ground since 2016". The Nevada Independent. Retrieved November 26, 2020.
  9. ^ Mazzei, Patricia; Perlroth, Nicole (November 4, 2020). "False News Targeting Latinos Trails the Election". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 2020-11-05.
  10. ^ Yee, Amy (October 22, 2020). "Latinos the targets of election disinformation – but activists are fighting back". The Guardian.
  11. ^ Sanz, Catherine (November 21, 2020). "Misinformation targeted Latino voters in the 2020 election". ABC News.
  12. ^ "American Election Eve Poll 2020". The American Election Eve Poll. November 2, 2020. Archived from the original on January 15, 2021. Retrieved November 26, 2020.
  13. ^ Andre, Michael; et al. (November 3, 2020). "New Mexico Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 26, 2020.
  14. ^ Andre, Michael; et al. (November 3, 2020). "Florida Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 26, 2020.
  15. ^ a b "National Exit Polls: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. 2021-01-05. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2021-01-24.
  16. ^ Stafford, Kat; Morrison, Aaron; Kastanis, Angeleki (November 9, 2020). "'This is proof': Biden's win reveals power of Black voters". Associated Press. Retrieved November 22, 2020. [The] African American community stood up again for me.
  17. ^ "President Exit Polls". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2021-01-24.
  18. ^ Huang, Jon; Jacoby, Samuel; Strickland, Michael; Lai, K. K. Rebecca (2016-11-08). "Election 2016: Exit Polls (Published 2016)". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2021-01-24.
  19. ^ a b Mehta, Dhrumil (2020-09-18). "How Asian Americans Are Thinking About The 2020 Election". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2021-01-27.
  20. ^ Nguyen, Terry (2020-10-30). "48% of Vietnamese Americans say they're voting for Trump. Here's why". Vox. Retrieved 2021-01-29.
  21. ^ Zhou, Li (November 14, 2020). "What we know about who Asian American voters supported in the election". Vox. Retrieved November 22, 2020. With strong turnout this year and more voters joining the electorate, it's evident that AAPI voters are a key base that can't be neglected. The upcoming races in Georgia, too, are yet another opportunity for such outreach.
  22. ^ Desai, Suyash (September 26, 2019). "Donald Trump endorsement: India's calculated move". Deccan Herald. DH. Retrieved February 11, 2021.
  23. ^ "US election result 2020: Hindu Sena performs "havan", "puja" for Donald Trump's victory". Business Today. BT. November 4, 2020. Retrieved January 9, 2021.
  24. ^ Native News Online Staff (October 21, 2020). "SURVEY: Indian Country overwhelmingly supports Joe Biden". Native News Online. Retrieved November 26, 2020.
  25. ^ Caldera, Camille (November 12, 2020). "Fact check: There was strong Navajo support for Biden, but numbers cited in claim have changed". USA Today. Retrieved November 26, 2020.
  26. ^ Segers, Grace (November 20, 2020). "Native American voters critical to Biden's success in Arizona". CBS News. Retrieved November 26, 2020.
  27. ^ Fonseca, Felicia; Kastanis, Angeliki (November 19, 2020). "Native American votes helped secure Biden's win in Arizona". Associated Press. Retrieved November 26, 2020.
  28. ^ a b Smith, Anna V. (November 6, 2020). "How Indigenous voters swung the 2020 election". High Country News. Retrieved November 26, 2020.
  29. ^ a b Fordham, Evie (November 6, 2020). "Trump investment in North Carolina's Native American Lumbee Tribe pays off". Fox News. Retrieved November 26, 2020.
  30. ^ a b c Leonhardt, David (2020-11-12). "'A Black Eye': Why Political Polling Missed the Mark. Again". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on 2020-11-12. Retrieved 2020-11-29.
  31. ^ a b Edwards-Levy, Ariel (May 13, 2021). "Here's what pollsters think happened with 2020 election surveys". CNN. Retrieved May 13, 2021.
  32. ^ Matthews, Dylan (November 10, 2020). "One pollster's explanation for why the polls got it wrong". Vox. Retrieved November 12, 2020.
  33. ^ Walker, Ben (November 5, 2020). "How accurate were the US presidential election polls?". New Statesman. Retrieved 2020-11-29.
  34. ^ Silver, Nate (November 11, 2020). "The Polls Weren't Great. But That's Pretty Normal". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved December 15, 2020.