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Statewide opinion polling for the April 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries

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Republican presidential primaries, 2012

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Leading Republican 2012 primary candidate by state (parentheses indicate a shared lead, italics indicates polling data, non-italics indicates a primary win). Stars indicate a completed primary. States in gray have no polling data or no relevant data due to a leading candidate having withdrawn or declined to enter the race.
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Republican nominee before election

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Republican

Presumptive Republican nominee

Mitt Romney
Republican

This article contains opinion polling by U.S. state for the 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries.

As of May 2012, both Ron Paul and Mitt Romney have led polls in multiple states. They have both also reached at least 20 percent in polls in multiple states. Before announcing that they would not run, Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin were also leading polls in multiple states with numbers above 20 percent. Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum were also able to lead polls in multiple states earlier in the race, but Cain suspended his campaign on December 3 after multiple allegations of sexual impropriety,[1] Bachmann dropped out on January 4, one day after her poor showing in the Iowa caucuses, in which she came in sixth place and received just 5 percent of the vote,[2] Perry dropped out on January 19 after finishing fifth in Iowa with just over 10 percent of the vote, finishing sixth in New Hampshire with less than 1 percent of the vote and with "lagging" poll numbers ahead of the South Carolina primary,[3] and Santorum suspended his campaign on April 10.[4] Newt Gingrich announced he would drop out of the race after a poor showing in the northeast on April 24.[5]

Haley Barbour of Mississippi, Jeb Bush of Florida, Chris Christie of New Jersey, Jim DeMint of South Carolina, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, Paul Ryan of Wisconsin and John Thune of South Dakota all succeeded in leading polls in their home states at some point in 2011, although only Pawlenty actually launched a campaign. Pawlenty exited the race on August 14, one day after finishing third in Iowa's Ames Straw Poll, citing a lack of campaign funds.[6][7]

Polling for completed primaries

[edit]

Winner: Mitt Romney
Primary date: April 3, 2012
Delegates: 37

Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Primary results[8]

Turnout: 238,059

April 3, 2012 Mitt Romney 49.1% Rick Santorum
28.9%
Newt Gingrich
10.9%
Ron Paul 9.5%, Others 1.5%
Public Policy Polling[9]

Margin of error: ±4.4%
Sample size: 500

Mar. 31 – Apr. 1, 2012 Mitt Romney
52%
Rick Santorum
27%
Newt Gingrich
10%
Ron Paul 9%, Someone else/Not sure 2%
Mitt Romney
51%
Rick Santorum
33%
Ron Paul
11%
Not sure 5%
Rasmussen Reports[10]

Margin of error: ±4.5%
Sample size: 750

Mar. 28, 2012 Mitt Romney
45%
Rick Santorum
28%
Newt Gingrich
12%
Ron Paul 7%, Some other candidate 2%, Undecided 6%
Mitt Romney
53%
Rick Santorum
39%

Winner: Mitt Romney
Primary date: April 3, 2012
Delegates: 42

Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Primary results[11]

Turnout: 784,660

April 3, 2012 Mitt Romney 44.1% Rick Santorum
36.9%
Ron Paul
11.2%
Newt Gingrich 5.9%, Others 2.0%
We Ask America[12]

Margin of error: ±2.86%
Sample size: 1,173

Apr. 1, 2012 Mitt Romney
39%
Rick Santorum
31%
Ron Paul
16%
Newt Gingrich 15%
Public Policy Polling[13]

Margin of error: ±4.0%
Sample size: 609

Mar. 31 – Apr. 1, 2012 Mitt Romney
43%
Rick Santorum
36%
Ron Paul
11%
Newt Gingrich 8%, Someone else/Not sure 2%
Mitt Romney
43%
Rick Santorum
37%
Ron Paul
16%
Not sure 4%
Rasmussen Reports[14]

Margin of error: ±4%
Sample size: 717

Mar. 29, 2012 Mitt Romney
44%
Rick Santorum
34%
Ron Paul
7%
Newt Gingrich 7%, Other 2%, Not sure 6%
St. Norbert College/Wisconsin Public Radio[15]

Margin of error: ±5%
Sample size: 403

Mar. 24–28, 2012 Mitt Romney
37%
Rick Santorum
32%
Ron Paul
8%
Newt Gingrich 4%, Other 5%, Not sure 11%, Refused 2%
NBC News/Marist[16]

Margin of error: ±3.6%
Sample size: 740

Mar. 26–27, 2012 Mitt Romney
40%
Rick Santorum
33%
Ron Paul
11%
Newt Gingrich 8%, Undecided 7%
Mitt Romney
46%
Rick Santorum
41%
Other 1%, Undecided 12%
Marquette University Law School[17]

Margin of error: ±5.4%
Sample size: 349

Mar. 22–25, 2012 Mitt Romney
39%
Rick Santorum
31%
Ron Paul
11%
Newt Gingrich 5%, Don't know 12%, Refused 1%
Rasmussen Reports[18]

Margin of error: ±3%
Sample size: 1,000

Mar. 21, 2012 Mitt Romney
46%
Rick Santorum
33%
Ron Paul
8%
Newt Gingrich 7%, Some other candidate 1%, Undecided 5%
Mitt Romney
51%
Rick Santorum
40%
Public Policy Polling[19]

Margin of error: ±4.16%
Sample size: 556

Feb. 23–26, 2012 Rick Santorum
43%
Mitt Romney
27%
Newt Gingrich
10%
Ron Paul 8%, Someone else/Not sure 12%
Rick Santorum
51%
Mitt Romney
28%
Ron Paul
8%
Not sure 13%
Marquette University Law School[20]

Margin of error: ±4.9%
Sample size: 424

Feb. 16–19, 2012 Rick Santorum
34%
Mitt Romney
18%
Ron Paul
17%
Newt Gingrich 12%, Don't know 17%, Refused 1%
Public Policy Polling[21]

Margin of error: ±3.8%
Sample size: 650

Oct. 20–23, 2011 Herman Cain
30%
Mitt Romney
18%
Newt Gingrich
12%
Rick Perry 12%, Ron Paul 8%, Michele Bachmann 5%, Rick Santorum 2%, Jon Huntsman 1%, Gary Johnson 1%, someone else/undecided 12%
Mitt Romney
46%
Rick Perry
34%
not sure 20%
Herman Cain
46%
Mitt Romney
35%
not sure 19%
Herman Cain
49%
Rick Perry
31%
not sure 21%
Public Policy Polling[22]

Margin of error: ±5.2%
Sample size: 362

Aug. 12–14, 2011 Michele Bachmann
20%
Rick Perry
20%
Mitt Romney
13%
Sarah Palin 11%, Herman Cain 7%, Newt Gingrich 6%, Ron Paul 6%, Tim Pawlenty 3%, Jon Huntsman 1%, someone else/undecided 12%
Michele Bachmann
24%
Rick Perry
20%
Mitt Romney
17%
Newt Gingrich 10%, Herman Cain 7%, Ron Paul 6%, Tim Pawlenty 4%, Jon Huntsman 1%, someone else/undecided 11%
Public Policy Polling[23]

Margin of error: ±3.8%
Sample size: 666

May 19–22, 2011 Mitt Romney
17%
Sarah Palin
16%
Tim Pawlenty
12%
Michele Bachmann 11%, Herman Cain 10%, Newt Gingrich 10%, Ron Paul 10%, Jon Huntsman 2%, someone else/not sure 14%
Mitt Romney
19%
Tim Pawlenty
15%
Michele Bachmann
14%
Newt Gingrich 14%, Herman Cain 11%, Ron Paul 11%, Jon Huntsman 3%, someone else/not sure 14%
Public Policy Polling[24]

Margin of error: ±4.9%
Sample size: 400

Feb. 24–27, 2011 Paul Ryan
30%
Mike Huckabee
17%
Newt Gingrich
12%
Sarah Palin 9%, Mitt Romney 9%, Ron Paul 5%, Tim Pawlenty 4%, Mitch Daniels 3%, someone else/undecided 13%
Mike Huckabee
23%
Newt Gingrich
15%
Sarah Palin
15%
Mitt Romney 12%, Tim Pawlenty 10%, Ron Paul 5%, Mitch Daniels 3%, someone else/undecided 17%
Public Policy Polling[25]

Margin of error: ±4.9%
Sample size: 400

Dec. 10–12, 2010 Sarah Palin
21%
Mike Huckabee
18%
Mitt Romney
17%
Newt Gingrich 13%, Tim Pawlenty 10%, Ron Paul 4%, John Thune 3%, Mitch Daniels 2%, someone else/undecided 12%
Public Policy Polling[26]

Margin of error: ±4.1%
Sample size: 579

Oct. 26–28, 2010 Sarah Palin
18%
Mike Huckabee
15%
Newt Gingrich
14%
Mitt Romney 12%, Tim Pawlenty 8%, Mitch Daniels 2%, Mike Pence 2%, John Thune 1%, someone else/undecided 28%
Public Policy Polling[27]

Margin of error: ±4.9%
Sample size: 400

Mar. 20–21, 2010 Mitt Romney
32%
Sarah Palin
27%
Mike Huckabee
23%
undecided 18%

Winner: Mitt Romney
Primary date: April 24, 2012
Delegates: 28

Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Quinnipiac[28]
Margin of error: ±4.7%
Sample size: 429
Mar. 14–19, 2012 Mitt Romney
42%
Rick Santorum
19%
Newt Gingrich
13%
Ron Paul 9%, Won't vote 3%, Don't know/No answer 14%
Public Policy Polling[29]
Margin of error: ±4.9%
Sample size: 400
Sep. 22–25, 2011 Mitt Romney
25%
Rick Perry
18%
Herman Cain
10%
Newt Gingrich 10%, Ron Paul 10%, Michele Bachmann 8%, Jon Huntsman 3%, Rick Santorum 3%, Gary Johnson 1%, someone else/not sure 12%
Mitt Romney
45%
Rick Perry
36%
not sure 19%
Quinnipiac[30]
Margin of error: ±5.4%
Sample size: 332
Sep. 8–13, 2011 Mitt Romney
37%
Rick Perry
19%
Michele Bachmann
8%
Sarah Palin 4%, Herman Cain 3%, Newt Gingrich 3%, Ron Paul 3%, Jon Huntsman 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Thaddeus McCotter 0%, someone else/undecided 20%
Public Policy Polling[31]
Margin of error: ±7.3%
Sample size: 180
Oct. 27–29, 2010 Mitt Romney
28%
Mike Huckabee
15%
Newt Gingrich
14%
Sarah Palin 11%, Tim Pawlenty 5%, Mike Pence 5%, Mitch Daniels 4%, John Thune 2%, someone else/undecided 18

Winner: Mitt Romney
Primary date: April 24, 2012
Delegates: 95

Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Siena College Research Institute[32]

Margin of error: ±6.6%
Sample size: 218

Apr. 1–4, 2012 Mitt Romney
51%
Rick Santorum
18%
Ron Paul
11%
Newt Gingrich 6%, Don't know/No opinion 14%
Quinnipiac[33]

Margin of error: ±5.1%
Sample size: 372

Mar. 28 – Apr. 2, 2012 Mitt Romney
54%
Rick Santorum
21%
Newt Gingrich
9%
Ron Paul 8%, Don't know/No answer 8%
Siena College Research Institute[34]

Margin of error: ±6.5%
Sample size: 230

Feb. 26–29, 2012 Mitt Romney
38%
Rick Santorum
23%
Newt Gingrich
13%
Ron Paul 11%, Don't know/No opinion 14%
Quinnipiac[35]

Margin of error: ±4.9%
Sample size: 399

Feb. 8–13, 2012 Mitt Romney
32%
Rick Santorum
20%
Ron Paul
14%
Newt Gingrich 10%
Siena College Research Institute[36]

Margin of error: ±3.4%
Sample size: 807

Jan. 29 – Feb. 1, 2012 Mitt Romney
31%
Newt Gingrich
29%
Ron Paul
16%
Rick Santorum 13%, Don't know 10%
Siena College Research Institute[37]

Margin of error: ±3.5%
Sample size: 803

Nov. 8–10, 13, 2011 Mitt Romney
32%
Herman Cain
15%
Newt Gingrich
12%
Michele Bachmann 9%, Ron Paul 9%, Rick Perry 9%, Don't know 15%

Winner: Mitt Romney
Primary date: April 24, 2012
Delegates: 72

Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
American Research Group[38]

Margin of error: ±4%
Sample size: 600

Apr. 9–10, 2012 Mitt Romney
44%
Rick Santorum
40%
Newt Gingrich
7%
Ron Paul 5%, Other 1%, Undecided 3%
Rasmussen Reports[39]

Margin of error: ±4%
Sample size: 750

Apr. 4, 2012 Rick Santorum
42%
Mitt Romney
38%
Ron Paul
7%
Newt Gingrich 6%, Some other candidate 2%, Undecided 5%
Rick Santorum
46%
Mitt Romney
44%
Public Policy Polling[40]

Margin of error: ±4.9%
Sample size: 403

Apr. 4, 2012 Mitt Romney
42%
Rick Santorum
37%
Ron Paul
9%
Newt Gingrich 6%, Someone else/Not sure 6%
Rick Santorum
42%
Mitt Romney
41%
Ron Paul
12%
Not sure 6%
Quinnipiac[41]

Margin of error: ±3.9%
Sample size: 647

Mar. 27 – Apr. 1, 2012 Rick Santorum
41%
Mitt Romney
35%
Ron Paul
10%
Newt Gingrich 7%, Don't know/No answer 6%
Mercyhurst University[42]

Margin of error: ±4.75%
Sample size: 425

Mar. 19–30, 2012 Rick Santorum
37%
Mitt Romney
31%
Ron Paul
10%
Newt Gingrich 9%, Other 4%, Don't know 6%, Refused 2%
Franklin & Marshall College[43]

Margin of error: ±4.2%
Sample size: 505

Mar. 20–25, 2012 Rick Santorum
30%
Mitt Romney
28%
Ron Paul
9%
Newt Gingrich 6%, Don't know 24%, Other 3%
Quinnipiac[44]

Margin of error: ±4.4%
Sample size: 508

Mar. 7–12, 2012 Rick Santorum
36%
Mitt Romney
22%
Ron Paul
12%
Newt Gingrich 8%, Someone else 2%, Wouldn't vote 3%, Don't know/No answer 18%
Rick Santorum
52%
Mitt Romney
32%
Don't know/No answer 16%
Public Policy Polling[45]

Margin of error: ±4.1%
Sample size: 564

Mar. 8–11, 2012 Rick Santorum
43%
Mitt Romney
25%
Newt Gingrich
13%
Ron Paul 9%, Someone else/Not sure 10%
Rick Santorum
51%
Mitt Romney
28%
Ron Paul
12%
Not sure 9%
Franklin & Marshall College[46]

Margin of error: ±5.9%
Sample size: 278

Feb. 14–20, 2012 Rick Santorum
45%
Mitt Romney
16%
Newt Gingrich
9%
Ron Paul 7%, Other 1%, Don't know 22%
Susquehanna Polling and Research[47]

Margin of error: ±4.38%
Sample size: 500

Feb. 2–6, 2012 Rick Santorum
30%
Mitt Romney
29%
Newt Gingrich
13%
Ron Paul 9%, Other 2%, Undecided 16%
Susquehanna Polling and Research[48]

Margin of error: ±2.95%
Sample size: 1,106

Dec. 7–11, 2011 Newt Gingrich
35%
Mitt Romney
18%
Rick Santorum
18%
Ron Paul 8%, Michele Bachmann 6%, Rick Perry 2%, undecided 14%
Quinnipiac[49]

Margin of error: ±4.1%
Sample size: 578

Nov. 28 – Dec. 5, 2011 Newt Gingrich
31%
Mitt Romney
17%
Rick Santorum
9%
Ron Paul 7%, Michele Bachmann 3%, Herman Cain 3%, Jon Huntsman 3%, Rick Perry 3%, Someone Else 2%, Wouldn't Vote 4%, Don't Know/No Answer 18%
Newt Gingrich
50%
Mitt Romney
31%
Someone Else 3%, Wouldn't Vote 5%, Don't Know/No Answer 11%
Public Policy Polling[50]

Margin of error: ±4.9%
Sample size: 400

Nov. 17–20, 2011 Newt Gingrich
32%
Herman Cain
15%
Mitt Romney
12%
Rick Santorum 12%, Ron Paul 9%, Michele Bachmann 5%, Jon Huntsman 3%, Rick Perry 3%, Gary Johnson 0%, someone else/not sure 9%
Quinnipiac[51]

Margin of error: ±4.1%
Sample size: 579

Oct. 31 – Nov. 7, 2011 Herman Cain
17%
Mitt Romney
17%
Newt Gingrich
13%
Rick Santorum 13%, Ron Paul 5%, Rick Perry 5%, Michele Bachmann 2%, Jon Huntsman 2%, don't know 21%, someone else 2%, wouldn't vote 2%
Quinnipiac[52]

Margin of error: ±4.2%
Sample size: 541

Sep. 21–26, 2011 Mitt Romney
18%
Rick Perry
16%
Rick Santorum
12%
Sarah Palin 8%, Michele Bachmann 6%, Herman Cain 5%, Ron Paul 5%, Newt Gingrich 4%, Jon Huntsman 2%, don't know 19%, someone else 2%, wouldn't vote 2%
Public Policy Polling[53]

Margin of error: ±5.1%
Sample size: 376

Jun. 30 – Jul. 5, 2011 Michele Bachmann
24%
Mitt Romney
17%
Rick Santorum
14%
Herman Cain 10%, Ron Paul 9%, Rick Perry 8%, Newt Gingrich 6%, Jon Huntsman 3%, Tim Pawlenty 1%, someone else/not sure 8%
Michele Bachmann
27%
Mitt Romney
20%
Ron Paul
10%
Rick Perry 10%, Herman Cain 9%, Newt Gingrich 9%, Jon Huntsman 3%, Tim Pawlenty 2%, someone else/not sure 11%
Michele Bachmann
23%
Sarah Palin
18%
Mitt Romney
14%
Rick Perry 11%, Herman Cain 7%, Ron Paul 7%, Newt Gingrich 5%, Jon Huntsman 3%, Tim Pawlenty 3%, someone else/not sure 8%
Quinnipiac[54]

Margin of error: ±4.3%
Sample size: 523

Jun. 7–12, 2011 Mitt Romney
21%
Rick Santorum
16%
Sarah Palin
11%
Herman Cain 8%, Ron Paul 6%, Michele Bachmann 5% Newt Gingrich 5%, Tim Pawlenty 4%, Jon Huntsman 1%, Gary Johnson <1%
Public Policy Polling[55]

Margin of error: ±4.9%
Sample size: 400

Jan. 3–5, 2011 Mike Huckabee
21%
Sarah Palin
18%
Newt Gingrich
16%
Mitt Romney 14%, Rick Santorum 11%, Tim Pawlenty 6%, Ron Paul 4%, Mitch Daniels 1%, undecided 8%
Mike Huckabee
26%
Sarah Palin
21%
Mitt Romney
16%
Newt Gingrich 15%, Tim Pawlenty 6%, Ron Paul 5%, Mitch Daniels 2%, undecided 9%
Public Policy Polling[56]

Margin of error: ±5.8%
Sample size: 283

Oct. 30–31, 2010 Mike Huckabee
23%
Sarah Palin
16%
Mitt Romney
16%
Newt Gingrich 15%, Mitch Daniels 2%, Tim Pawlenty 2%, Mike Pence 2%, John Thune 1%, someone else/undecided 22%
Public Policy Polling[57]

Margin of error: ±4.9%
Sample size: 400

Aug. 14–16, 2010 Mike Huckabee
17%
Sarah Palin
17%
Mitt Romney
16%
Rick Santorum 15%, Newt Gingrich 14%, Ron Paul 6%, undecided 17%
Mitt Romney
20%
Newt Gingrich
19%
Mike Huckabee
19%
Sarah Palin 19%, Ron Paul 8%, undecided 12%, someone else 4%
Public Policy Polling[58]

Margin of error: ±5.0%
Sample size: 400

Jun. 19–21, 2010 Sarah Palin
24%
Newt Gingrich
23%
Mike Huckabee
20%
Mitt Romney 16%, Ron Paul 11%, undecided 6%
Public Policy Polling[59]

Margin of error: ±4.9%
Sample size: 405

Mar. 29–Apr. 1, 2010 Mitt Romney
31%
Mike Huckabee
27%
Sarah Palin
27%
undecided 15%

Winner: Mitt Romney
Primary date: April 24, 2012
Delegates: 19

Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Public Policy Polling[60]

Margin of error: ±6.2%
Sample size: 250

Feb. 16–22, 2011 Mitt Romney
39%
Mike Huckabee
15%
Newt Gingrich
13%
Sarah Palin 10%, Ron Paul 5%, Tim Pawlenty 5%, Mitch Daniels 4%, John Thune 1%, someone else/undecided 9%

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ James Oliphant, "Herman Cain drops out of presidential race" (December 3, 2011). Los Angeles Times.
  2. ^ Sarah Wheaton, "Bachmann Says She Will Not Continue in the Race" (January 4, 2012). New York Times.
  3. ^ Zeleny, Jeff; Shear, Michael D. (January 19, 2012). "Perry to End Bid for Presidency". The Caucus. The New York Times. Retrieved January 19, 2012.
  4. ^ Blake, Aaron; Henderson, Nia-Malika (April 10, 2012). "Rick Santorum drops out of the presidential race". The Washington Post. Retrieved April 19, 2012.
  5. ^ "Gingrich Drops Out of the Race". Election Coverage 2012. Retrieved 1 May 2012.
  6. ^ Kate O'Hare, "Tim Pawlenty quits after third-place straw-poll finish" (August 14, 2011). Los Angeles Times.
  7. ^ Robert J. Vickers, "Pawlenty to headline state GOP meeting" (January 3, 2012). The Patriot-News.
  8. ^ Primary results
  9. ^ Public Policy Polling
  10. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  11. ^ Primary results
  12. ^ We Ask America
  13. ^ Public Policy Polling
  14. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  15. ^ St. Norbert College/Wisconsin Public Radio
  16. ^ NBC News/Marist
  17. ^ Marquette University Law School
  18. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  19. ^ Public Policy Polling
  20. ^ Marquette University Law School
  21. ^ Public Policy Polling
  22. ^ Public Policy Polling
  23. ^ Public Policy Polling
  24. ^ Public Policy Polling
  25. ^ Public Policy Polling
  26. ^ Public Policy Polling
  27. ^ Public Policy Polling
  28. ^ "Quinnipiac". Archived from the original on 2012-03-22. Retrieved 2012-12-16.
  29. ^ Public Policy Polling
  30. ^ Quinnipiac
  31. ^ Public Policy Polling
  32. ^ Siena College Research Institute
  33. ^ "Quinnipiac". Archived from the original on 2012-10-08. Retrieved 2012-12-16.
  34. ^ Siena College Research Institute
  35. ^ "Quinnipiac". Archived from the original on 2012-09-13. Retrieved 2012-12-16.
  36. ^ Siena College Research Institute
  37. ^ Siena College Research Institute
  38. ^ American Research Group
  39. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  40. ^ Public Policy Polling
  41. ^ "Quinnipiac". Archived from the original on 2012-09-13. Retrieved 2012-12-16.
  42. ^ Mercyhurst University[permanent dead link]
  43. ^ Franklin & Marshall College
  44. ^ "Quinnipiac". Archived from the original on 2012-09-13. Retrieved 2012-12-16.
  45. ^ Public Policy Polling
  46. ^ Franklin & Marshall College
  47. ^ Susquehanna Polling and Research
  48. ^ "Susquehanna Polling and Research". Archived from the original on 2012-06-06. Retrieved 2012-12-16.
  49. ^ Quinnipiac[permanent dead link]
  50. ^ Public Policy Polling
  51. ^ Quinnipiac
  52. ^ Quinnipiac
  53. ^ Public Policy Polling
  54. ^ Quinnipiac
  55. ^ Public Policy Polling
  56. ^ Public Policy Polling
  57. ^ Public Policy Polling
  58. ^ Public Policy Polling
  59. ^ Public Policy Polling
  60. ^ Public Policy Polling