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Summary

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English: This diagram shows some of the main impacts of global warming. This is a draft image for discussion on Talk:Effects of global warming. Impacts are organized into 4 categories: (1) Physical systems, (2) ecological systems, (3) social systems; and (4) abrupt and large-scale changes. The shaded bars indicate the level of risk associated with different magnitudes of global warming. The following scale is used:
  • White shading: no detectable risk
  • Light grey: small risk
  • Medium grey: moderate risk
  • Dark grey: large risk
  • Black: severe risk

Risks apply to observed and projected climate change. Later text explains whether observed risks are attributable to climate change or due to climate variability. Some risks are given based on (1) current adaptation (c.a.) practices to climate variability and change, and (2) for a hypothesized highly adapted state (h.a.). Global temperatures are measured relative to pre-industrial times, approximated as the years 1850 to 1900. Recent times are taken as 2003 to 2012.

Physical systems

  • Increase in risk associated with some extreme weather events: small to moderate risk at present; large risk starting around 1.6 °C.
  • Other effects of global warming include global mean sea level rise and ocean acidification. Global warming could be irreversible for several millennia.

Ecological systems

  • Climate change is a significant risk for some ecosystems and organisms, e.g., Arctic ecosystems and coral reefs: Moderate risk at present; large risk from 1.6 °C; severe risk from 2.6 °C.
  • Risk of widespread extinctions: Small at present; moderate at 2 °C; large at 4 °C.

Social systems

  • Sectors affected include food security, water resources and human health. Impacts will be uneven within and across different countries. Climate change increases the risk of many negative impacts, but there will be some positive effects.
  • Africa: Risks associated with reduced crop productivity: Present: Moderate (c.a.) or low (h.a.) risk from climate variability; 2 °C: high (c.a.) or moderate (h.a); 4 °C: very high (c.a. and h.a.)
  • North America: Risks associated with urban flooding in riverine and coastal areas: Present: Moderate (c.a.) or low (h.a.) risk from climate variability; 2 °C: moderate (c.a. and h.a); 4 °C: high (c.a. and h.a.).

Abrupt and large-scale changes

Climate change can lead to abrupt and large-scale changes in natural and human systems. The risk of these changes increases with temperature.

  • Declines in late-summer Arctic sea ice extent: Present: low to moderate risk; 2 °C moderate to large risk; 4 °C: severe risk.
  • Sustained global warming could lead to the near-complete loss of the Greenland ice sheet over a millennium or more, which would result in global mean sea level rise of about 7 m: risk is low at 1 to 2 °C; moderate at 3 °C, and large at 4 °C and above.

Notes

Sources are: Working Group's I and II (WG1 and 2) contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report (IPCC AR5, 2013 and 2014); and the US National Research Council (US NRC, 2013) report "Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises". Details:

Español: Incremento en la temperatura media global, en relación a niveles preindustriales

Físicos Incremento en el riesgo asociado con algunos fenómenos meteorológicos extremos: moderado, grande Otros efectos del incluyen el aumento del nivel medio del mar y la acidficicación oceánica. El calentamiento global podría ser irreversible por varios milenios.

Ecológicos El cambio climático ya es una amenaza significativa para sistemas vulnerables, como los ecosistemas árticos y los arrecifes de coral. Los riesgos a estos sistemas son grandes incluso con pequeños incrementos de temperatura. Riesgo moderado en el presente, grande en 1,6 °C, grave desde 2,6 °C.

Riesgo de extinciones generalizadas. Pequeño, moderado, grande.

Sociales Los sectores afectados incluyen la seguridad alimentaria, los recursos hídricos y la salud humana. Los impactos serán desiguales dentro y entre los países. El cambio climático incrementa el riesgo de muchos impactos negativos, pero habrá algunos efectos positivos. África: riesgo asociados con la disminución del rendimiento agrícula: Bajo a moderado, moderado a alto, muy alto. Norteamérica: riesgos asociados con inundación urbana en las áreas costaneras: bajo a moderado, moderado, alto.

Cambios súbitos y a gran escala El cambio climático puede conducir a un cambios súbitos y a gran escala en los sistemas naturales y humanos. El riesgo de estos cambios aumenta con la temperatura. La extensión de la banquisa ártica en el verano tardío ya ha disminuido sustancialmente y se prevé que disminuirá más a temperaturas bajas. Presente: riesgo bajo a moderado, 2 °C moderado a grande, 4 °C riesgo grave.

En calentamiento global sostenido podría conducir a una pérdida casi completa de la calota de hielo durante un milenio o más, lo que resultaría en una subida del nivel medio del mar de 7 m. Riesgo bajo desde 1 a 2 °C, moderado en 3 °C y grande sobre 4 °C.

Temperaturas recientes (2003 a 2012)

Notas

Fuentes: Working Group's I and II (WG1 and 2) contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report (IPCC AR5, 2013 and 2014); and the US National Research Council (US NRC, 2013) report "Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises". Detalles:

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